WITH members likely to display stubbornness against political pressures, a constitutional convention will be a more difficult proposition for the Arroyo government and its political allies if a Charter Change (Cha-cha) is again pursued within the next three years, according to a drafter of the 1987 Constitution.
"The best way for a Cha-cha is Con-Con. Pero hindi sila sigurado kung mahahawakan nila ang Con-Con (But they are not sure if they can control Con-con)," Christian Monsod said during a recent round table discussion on the agrarian reform agenda and Cha-cha. "The Con-con members will have a mind of their own," he added.
This resistance, Mr. Monsod said, is borne out of the desire of every member to leave behind a "legacy" or a personal imprint thru proposed changes on the Constitution, in case a Con-con is realized. "Kaya ayaw nila (President Arroyo's allies) ng Con-con (That is why they don't like a Con-con)," he said.
Mr. Monsod is confident, however, that there will be no Cha-cha until after the 2010 presidential elections.
On the other hand, political analyst Joel Rocamora, during another discussion with fellow convenors of the Coalition for a Citizens’ Constitution (C4CC), said there is still the possibility that the Arroyo administration might attempt to push the Cha-cha despite his prediction that the President would continue to weaken politically in the next one and a half years. This is a consequence of the increased strength of the opposition in the Senate.
A “go-for-broke” strategy would be resorted to by Ms. Arroyo for her allies to stay in power, and prevent the people from doing what they did to Erap, Mr. Rocamora, also a convenor of the Coalition for a Citizens’ Constitution (C4CC) said. He added that the problem is the timing of when House Speaker Jose de Venecia would launch another attempt.
Another challenge for the Cha-cha proponents is in choosing the best person to push for another try. “Walang mangyayari kung the usual suspects na naman (Nothing will happen if the usual suspects would be the ones to do it again),” Joel said.
During the same discussion with Rocamora, executive director Mon Casiple of the Institute of Political and Electoral Reform (IPER), believes that there will be reluctance on the part of the proponents if Cha-cha is proposed at this time. “No one will move,” he said.
Mr. Rocamora warned, however, that the issue of constitutional reforms will keep on haunting the public. “Babalik at babalik kapag pinabayaan. Ruling class na naman ang magdidikta at panay reaction na lang (It will keep on coming back. The ruling class will again dictate and the response will just be reactionary),” he said.
Mr. Casiple shared his view, stressing that “meron at meron maghahabol kahit hindi tayo, in the next three years (there will be others, if not us, who will pursue this issue in the next three years),” the IPER executive director stressed.
Mr. Rocamora views the Con-con as a better option for Ms. Arroyo, who might also be planning a graceful exit in 2010.
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